This started out as a full analysis of the arc, but damned it if wasn't turning into a master's thesis and I knew that by the time I finished it, the next chapter would probably be out. A big part of it was an outline of the reasons I think Tsukishima's almost definitely working with Xcution, but as I wrote, I noticed that one subject was overtaking everything else: hot damn Ginjou's some kind of wizard.
This being something that I'm absolutely sure about (as opposed to so-sure-I'd-bet-money-but-Kubo-may-yet-
troll-me), I decided to focus on that, because it clearly wanted to be focused on and the "Tsukishima Shuukurou has a posse" theory hinges on it. There's been a lot of talk about how dumb Ichigo's been acting this arc, and how it's not cool that he's not trusting his dad or Urahara, and as san_toki
pointed out in the 453 chapter post, it feels like Ichigo's done this to himself--letting his desire to get his powers back be exploited and make him blind to what's going on. I think it's more than that, though. If there's one thing this arc has reinforced mightily it's that Ichigo is still a kid, one who needs adults in his life and people he can lean on. As much as he's the hero of the series and runs around getting into danger and doing the impossible, Ichigo's always eventually gotten help from adults, whether they're shinigami or Ikumi or Urahara and Isshin. And what I see going on here is a kid who is entirely out of his depth
when an adult for whom manipulation is like breathing draws him into his circle.
Ichigo's used to dealing with people who are straightforward. Even Aizen will explain his plot at the drop of a hat; his powers really do the manipulation, and he insists that people just see what they want to see. Tsukishima's powers are a horror show, able to turn him into a beloved friend, family member, or authority figure at the cut of a blade, but most of the scare factor where he's concerned (for me at least) is the way he makes people vulnerable. He's able to inspire all the feelings of a personal relationship with him, but there's no evidence that he feels anything in return, and that's fairly horrifying.
Ginjou, though, is scary because what he's doing to Ichigo works just as well on real people, in real life, and he doesn't need any superpowers to do it. He just has to be able to lie and exploit other people shamelessly, and here's a rundown of how he does it.
(All images are from the scanlations available at MangaFox
and have been badly cropped for your convenience.)
( Forget Tsukishima, Ginjou's the one making Aizen look bad. )